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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
Sunday 2021-11-07 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 💨 Windy Spread -3.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NE
43.8%
CAR
56.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR defense: -0.147 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Sam Darnold (CAR): -0.064 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

NE 18
–
CAR 21
Projected margin: CAR by 3 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

NE

Jake Bailey P Questionable right Knee
Christian Barmore DT Questionable Foot
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Ribs
Carl Davis DT Questionable Hand
Cody Davis S Questionable Hand
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Neck
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
N'Keal Harry WR Questionable Knee
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Ankle
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Abdomen
Jonnu Smith TE Questionable Shoulder
Josh Uche LB Questionable Shoulder
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Groin

CAR

Stantley Thomas-Oliver CB Questionable Toe
Pat Elflein G Questionable Hamstring
Sam Darnold QB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 24
–
CAR 6

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:12 FG CAR (12:12) 5-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. NE 0 – CAR 3
  • Q2 08:24 TD NE (8:24) 37-D.Harris up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – CAR 3
  • Q2 04:33 FG CAR (4:33) 5-Z.Gonzalez 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. NE 7 – CAR 6
  • Q2 00:29 TD NE (:29) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – CAR 6
  • Q3 07:12 TD NE (7:12) 14-S.Darnold pass short left intended for 80-I.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson at NE 12. 27-J.Jackson for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – CAR 6
  • Q3 02:24 FG NE (2:24) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 24 – CAR 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (10:27) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:15) 10-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to NE 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 40 for 18 yards (49-F.Luvu).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 28%

    (5:46) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to CAR 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bethel.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 19 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:12) 10-L.Edwards punts 59 yards to NE 30, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 45 for 15 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NE 47.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%

    (12:12) 5-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:17) 10-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to NE 31, Center-44-J.Jansen. 16-J.Meyers to NE 38 for 7 yards (86-C.Thompson).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:24) 10-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to NE 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-J.Meyers. PENALTY on CAR, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 27.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:06) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CAR 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 16 for 4 yards (22-Co.Davis; 18-M.Slater). NE-18-M.Slater was injured during the play.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 90%

    (2:24) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 52%

    (8:46) 25-B.Bolden right guard to CAR 36 for 2 yards (7-S.Thompson; 21-J.Chinn).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 58%

    (5:59) 6-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 20 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 41%

    (3:38) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 2-Dj.Moore (2-J.Mills).