Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 6 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(13:24) 10-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to NE 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-J.Meyers. PENALTY on CAR, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.20 EP
58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model