4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 55

New England Patriots 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.30 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP