4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 19

New England Patriots 21 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 6-N.Folk 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.35 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model