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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 38

New England Patriots 24 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 25-B.Bolden right guard to CAR 36 for 2 yards (7-S.Thompson; 21-J.Chinn).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.41 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model