Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 0 – New England Patriots 0

(9:15) 10-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to NE 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 40 for 18 yards (49-F.Luvu).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model