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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 20 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 6 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(3:38) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep left to 2-Dj.Moore (2-J.Mills).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.00 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.52 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model