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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 47

New England Patriots 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to CAR 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.43 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model