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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 4

Indianapolis Colts 14 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 2-C.Wentz up the middle to NYJ 2 for 2 yards (95-Q.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +4.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model