4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Thursday 2021-11-04 · 20:20 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

NYJ
29.9%
IND
70.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.168 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYJ defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 19
–
IND 27
Projected margin: IND by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

NYJ

Tevin Coleman RB Out Hamstring
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Out Not injury related - personal matter
Bryce Huff DE Out Back
Zach Wilson QB Out Knee
Corey Davis WR Doubtful Hip
George Fant T Questionable Ankle

IND

T.Y. Hilton WR Out Concussion
Khari Willis S Out Calf
Quenton Nelson G Questionable Toe

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 30
–
IND 45

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:04 TD IND (7:04) 21-N.Hines right tackle for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 03:37 TD NYJ (3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-M.White pass deep left to 8-E.Moore for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – IND 7
  • Q2 13:31 TD IND (13:31) 28-J.Taylor left guard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – IND 13
  • Q2 05:03 TD IND (5:03) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 84-J.Doyle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – IND 20
  • Q2 01:51 FG NYJ (1:51) 6-M.Ammendola 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NYJ 10 – IND 21
  • Q2 00:15 TD IND (:15) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 11-M.Pittman (20-M.Maye). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – IND 27
  • Q3 06:59 TD IND (6:59) (Shotgun) 63-D.Pinter reported in as eligible. 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 63-D.Pinter for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – IND 34
  • Q3 06:12 TD IND (6:12) 28-J.Taylor right end for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – IND 41
  • Q3 03:07 TD NYJ (3:07) 9-J.Johnson pass short right to 8-E.Moore for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 16 – IND 42
  • Q4 11:12 TD NYJ (11:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Johnson pass short middle to 86-R.Griffin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 22 – IND 42
  • Q4 08:06 FG IND (8:06) 6-M.Badgley 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. NYJ 23 – IND 45
  • Q4 03:44 TD NYJ (3:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Johnson pass short middle to 25-T.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 29 – IND 45

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:55) 4-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to IND 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (6:27) 2-C.Wentz up the middle to NYJ 2 for 2 yards (95-Q.Williams).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (1:51) 6-M.Ammendola 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 99%

    (9:35) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 28-J.Taylor. 28-J.Taylor right tackle to NYJ 1 for 1 yard (57-C.Mosley, 94-F.Fatukasi).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 92
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (8:10) 4-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to IND 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 21-N.Hines to IND 45 for 10 yards (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at IND 45.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:20) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to IND 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 9 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:18) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to NYJ 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. Penalty on NYJ-51-T.Ward, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 91%

    (8:06) 6-M.Badgley 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 39%

    (3:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to NYJ 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 90 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Johnson pass short left to 86-R.Griffin to NYJ 21 for 11 yards (23-K.Moore).