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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 15

New York Jets 7 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 6-M.Ammendola 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.19 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model