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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 2

Indianapolis Colts 28 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(9:35) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 28-J.Taylor. 28-J.Taylor right tackle to NYJ 1 for 1 yard (57-C.Mosley, 94-F.Fatukasi).

The Three Options

GO +3.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 2, worth +0.62 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model