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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 92

New York Jets 10 – Indianapolis Colts 28

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 4-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to IND 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 21-N.Hines to IND 45 for 10 yards (34-J.Hardee). PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at IND 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.07 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 92, worth -5.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.86 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 50, worth -2.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP