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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Jets 10 – Indianapolis Colts 35

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to IND 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model