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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 81

Indianapolis Colts 42 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to NYJ 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. Penalty on NYJ-51-T.Ward, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.22 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -4.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model