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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 48

Indianapolis Colts 45 – New York Jets 30

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to NYJ 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-30-G.Odum.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.32 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model