Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 90

New York Jets 30 – Indianapolis Colts 45

(2:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Johnson pass short left to 86-R.Griffin to NYJ 21 for 11 yards (23-K.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.57 EP
65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 90, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.38 EP