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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 67

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Dallas Cowboys 36

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 12-D.Colquitt punts 66 yards to DAL 1, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-88-F.Darby.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP