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Atlanta Falcons

4-5 HC Arthur Smith
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Dallas Cowboys

7-2 HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2021-11-14 · 13:00 ET AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.0 O/U 55.0

Win Probability

ATL
30.8%
DAL
69.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.205 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.117 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22 15–29
–
DAL 28 21–35
Projected margin: DAL by 6 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

ATL

Kendall Sheffield CB Out Hamstring
Steven Means LB Doubtful Knee
Lee Smith TE Doubtful Back
Jonathan Bullard DE Doubtful Concussion
John Cominsky DE Questionable Shoulder

DAL

Tyron Smith T Out Ankle
Will Grier QB Questionable Knee
Cedrick Wilson WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 3
–
DAL 43

Prediction missed by 34 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:48 TD DAL (11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 08:27 FG ATL (8:27) 7-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt. ATL 3 – DAL 7
  • Q2 13:27 TD DAL (13:27) 21-E.Elliott up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – DAL 13
  • Q2 08:12 TD DAL (8:12) 21-E.Elliott left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – DAL 20
  • Q2 01:15 TD DAL (1:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-J.Vaughters]. ATL 3 – DAL 27
  • Q2 00:44 TD DAL (:44) 12-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 92-D.Armstrong, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by DAL-25-N.Wright at ATL -1. TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – DAL 34
  • Q3 00:38 TD DAL (:38) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – DAL 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (8:27) 7-Y.Koo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:58) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to ATL 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-A.Williams to ATL 32 for 5 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 7 at the 32
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 76%

    (4:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 14-R.Gage (26-J.Lewis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 75%

    (:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to ATL 12 for 21 yards (24-A.Terrell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:09) 12-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DAL 29, Center-47-J.Harris. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 32 for 3 yards (17-O.Zaccheaus).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 87%

    (8:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup pushed ob at ATL 2 for 23 yards (22-F.Moreau).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:01) 12-D.Colquitt punts 60 yards to DAL 25, Center-47-J.Harris. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 41 for 16 yards (47-J.Harris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:44) 12-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 92-D.Armstrong, Center-47-J.Harris, RECOVERED by DAL-25-N.Wright at ATL -1. TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (14:13) 12-D.Colquitt punts 66 yards to DAL 1, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-88-F.Darby.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:39) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to ATL 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-A.Williams to ATL 39 for 4 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on ATL-15-F.Franks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 35.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (:38) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:23) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to ATL 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:03) 12-D.Colquitt punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:27) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to ATL 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-A.Williams to ATL 46 for 6 yards (85-N.Brown; 57-L.Gifford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 20 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 70%

    (4:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep left to 88-F.Darby.

    See the full breakdown →