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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 2 at the 4
Dallas Cowboys 36 – Atlanta Falcons 3
What Actually Happened
(:38) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.64 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.25 EP
- 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 4, worth +0.29 EP
KICK
+1.97 EP
- 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT
-0.09 EP
- Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
