4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 43 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to ATL 28, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.86 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model