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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Dallas Cowboys 43

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 12-D.Colquitt punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.96 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP