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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 20 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Dallas Cowboys 43

What Actually Happened

(4:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep left to 88-F.Darby.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.75 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 35, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP