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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 78

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to ATL 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 35-A.Williams to ATL 32 for 5 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 78, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 35, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model