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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 14-R.Gage (26-J.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.15 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP