Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(1:55) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to BAL 27, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.50 EP
59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model