BAL @ MIA — 4th & Data

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HC John Harbaugh

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HC Brian Flores

Thursday 2021-11-11 · 20:20 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -8.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

BAL

62.2%

MIA

37.8%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

BAL offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
QB edge to BAL: Jacoby Brissett (MIA) -0.100 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.127 EPA/dropback
MIA offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
MIA defense: +0.073 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
BAL defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 24

–

MIA 21

Projected margin: BAL by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

BAL

Patrick Mekari G Doubtful Ankle

Latavius Murray RB Doubtful Ankle

Brandon Williams DT Questionable Shoulder

Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Thigh

Nick Boyle TE Questionable Knee

MIA

Elijah Campbell CB Questionable Toe

Tua Tagovailoa QB Questionable left Finger

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 10

–

MIA 22

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 09:53 FG BAL (9:53) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – MIA 0
Q2 06:22 FG MIA (6:22) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. BAL 3 – MIA 3
Q2 00:05 FG MIA (:05) 7-J.Sanders 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. BAL 3 – MIA 6
Q4 12:38 FG MIA (12:38) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. BAL 3 – MIA 9
Q4 11:40 TD MIA (11:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 14-S.Watkins to 50 for 8 yards (25-X.Howard). FUMBLES (25-X.Howard), RECOVERED by MIA-25-X.Howard at BAL 49. 25-X.Howard for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – MIA 15
Q4 04:16 TD BAL (4:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – MIA 15
Q4 02:24 TD MIA (2:24) 94-C.Wilkins reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 10 – MIA 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 28

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

(9:53) 9-J.Tucker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q1 MIA 4th & 17 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(7:14) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to BAL 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.
Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 30

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 78%

(2:06) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q1 MIA 4th & 11 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(1:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to BAL 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q2 BAL 4th & 14 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(15:00) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to MIA 36, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-J.Waddle ran ob at MIA 42 for 6 yards (54-T.Bowser).
Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(13:25) 5-M.Palardy punts 38 yards to BAL 16, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-9-N.Igbinoghene.
Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 78

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP

p(convert) 54%

(11:39) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to MIA 41, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.
Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

(6:22) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(4:03) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.
Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(1:55) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to BAL 27, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 55

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 56%

(:58) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to MIA 12, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.
Q3 MIA 4th & 20 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(14:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to BAL 41, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 13-D.Duvernay to 50 for 9 yards (9-N.Igbinoghene).
Q3 BAL 4th & 15 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 45%

(11:56) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to MIA 5, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.
Q3 MIA 4th & 14 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(9:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to BAL 46, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q3 BAL 4th & 13 at the 43

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 48%

(5:37) 4-S.Koch punts 24 yards to MIA 19, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 55%

(4:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to BAL 22, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q3 BAL 4th & 16 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(1:48) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to MIA 32, Center-46-N.Moore. 8-J.Holland to MIA 36 for 4 yards (41-A.Levine).
Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

(12:38) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(10:50) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 48

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 35%

(7:49) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to BAL 1, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.