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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(:58) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to MIA 12, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.17 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP