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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 85

Miami Dolphins 6 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to BAL 41, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 13-D.Duvernay to 50 for 9 yards (9-N.Igbinoghene).

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 85, worth -5.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model