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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 4-S.Koch punts 24 yards to MIA 19, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.25 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model