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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 11

Miami Dolphins 6 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(12:38) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model