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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Miami Dolphins 15

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.61 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model