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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 15 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to BAL 1, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.82 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP