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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 30

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 9-J.Tucker 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP