Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

(1:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to BAL 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.94 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model