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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 49

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 7-B.Mann punts 45 yards to BUF 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-16-J.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.21 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model