Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BUF offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- NYJ offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- NYJ defense: +0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- BUF defense: -0.222 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- NYJ on 3 more days rest than BUF
- QB edge to NYJ: Mike White (NYJ) +0.154 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.127 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 10
BUF
NYJ
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:22 TD BUF (12:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 22-M.Breida for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NYJ 0
- Q1 05:25 FG BUF (5:25) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. BUF 10 – NYJ 0
- Q2 01:57 FG NYJ (1:57) 6-M.Ammendola 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. BUF 10 – NYJ 3
- Q2 00:57 TD BUF (:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-Q.Williams]. BUF 16 – NYJ 3
- Q3 12:06 TD BUF (12:06) 19-I.McKenzie right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 23 – NYJ 3
- Q3 10:52 TD BUF (10:52) 22-M.Breida right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 30 – NYJ 3
- Q3 06:06 TD BUF (6:06) 20-Z.Moss right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 37 – NYJ 3
- Q4 12:02 TD NYJ (12:02) 67-D.Feeney reported in as eligible. 32-Mi.Carter left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 38 – NYJ 9
- Q4 05:57 TD BUF (5:57) 71-R.Bates reported in as eligible. 26-D.Singletary left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 44 – NYJ 10
- Q4 02:14 TD NYJ (2:14) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 8-E.Moore for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 45 – NYJ 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(14:18) 7-B.Mann punts 44 yards to BUF 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.
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Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 10Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%
(5:25) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(3:38) 7-B.Mann punts 46 yards to BUF 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-I.McKenzie to NYJ 40 for 26 yards (85-T.Wesco).
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Q1 BUF 4th & 19 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 33%
(:51) 3-M.Haack punts 41 yards to NYJ 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 16 for 8 yards (25-T.Jones).
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 33%
(10:59) 7-B.Mann punts 45 yards to BUF 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-16-J.Smith.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(5:32) 3-M.Haack punts 37 yards to NYJ 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 78%
(1:57) 6-M.Ammendola 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 28Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 82%
(14:26) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short middle to 82-J.Crowder to BUF 20 for 8 yards (24-T.Johnson).
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 48%
(8:17) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete deep left to 82-J.Crowder (21-J.Poyer).