Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 86

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(14:18) 7-B.Mann punts 44 yards to BUF 42, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.25 EP
59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 86, worth -4.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model