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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 2-T.Bass 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 10, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP