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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 26

Carolina Panthers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 5-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.15 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model