CAR @ ARI — 4th & Data

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HC Matt Rhule

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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury

Sunday 2021-11-14 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CAR

10.5%

ARI

89.5%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to ARI: Colt McCoy (ARI) +0.476 vs Phillip Walker (CAR) -0.782 EPA/dropback (CAR starting Phillip Walker in place of Sam Darnold)
CAR offense: -0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
ARI offense: +0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
ARI defense: -0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
CAR defense: -0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
Colt McCoy (ARI) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

CAR 16

–

ARI 31

Projected margin: ARI by 15 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

CAR

Stantley Thomas-Oliver CB Out Toe

Rashaan Melvin CB Out Hand

Brian Burns DE Questionable Foot

Frankie Luvu LB Questionable Knee

ARI

Chase Edmonds RB Out Ankle

Justin Pugh G Out Calf

Jonathan Ward RB Out Concussion

James Wiggins S Out Knee

Max Garcia C Questionable Achilles

DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Hamstring

Budda Baker S Questionable Knee

Rondale Moore WR Questionable Neck

Kyler Murray QB Questionable Ankle

Jordan Phillips DE Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 34

–

ARI 10

Prediction missed by 39 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:18 TD CAR (11:18) C.Newton in at QB. (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-1-C.Newton, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CAR 6 – ARI 0
Q1 08:43 TD CAR (8:43) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 11-R.Anderson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 13 – ARI 0
Q1 01:04 FG CAR (1:04) 5-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. CAR 17 – ARI 0
Q2 09:45 FG CAR (9:45) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. CAR 20 – ARI 0
Q2 00:04 FG CAR (:04) 5-Z.Gonzalez 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. CAR 23 – ARI 0
Q3 10:07 FG ARI (10:07) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee. CAR 23 – ARI 3
Q3 05:39 TD CAR (5:39) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 29 – ARI 3
Q4 09:24 TD ARI (9:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 31 – ARI 9
Q4 03:30 FG CAR (3:30) 5-Z.Gonzalez 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. CAR 34 – ARI 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 58

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 72%

(9:58) 12-C.McCoy up the middle to ARI 41 for -1 yards (4-J.Carter; 97-Y.Gross-Matos).
Q1 CAR 4th & 4 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 86%

(1:04) 5-Z.Gonzalez 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(14:56) 14-A.Lee punts 46 yards to CAR 19, Center-43-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.
Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%

(9:45) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(7:45) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to CAR 25, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 35 for 10 yards (31-C.Banjo).
Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 63

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(3:22) 14-A.Lee punts 47 yards to CAR 16, Center-43-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.
Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 78%

(:04) 5-Z.Gonzalez 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(12:59) 10-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to ARI 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 36 for 1 yard (45-G.Ricci). PENALTY on ARI-33-A.Hamilton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 35.
Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

(10:07) 5-M.Prater 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.
Q3 ARI 4th & 12 at the 42

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 54%

(3:24) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler sacked at CAR 49 for -7 yards (sack split by 91-M.Fox and 43-H.Reddick).
Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 31

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 78%

(:48) 66-J.Miles reported in as eligible. 15-C.Streveler FUMBLES (Aborted) at CAR 31, recovered by ARI-26-E.Benjamin at CAR 35.
Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(14:07) 10-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to ARI 12, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 29 for 17 yards (38-M.Hartsfield). CAR-38-M.Hartsfield was injured during the play.
Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

(3:30) 5-Z.Gonzalez 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.
Q4 ARI 4th & 19 at the 84 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(2:20) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to CAR 34, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 13-A.Erickson ran ob at 50 for 16 yards (81-D.Daniels). PENALTY on CAR-28-K.Taylor, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 46.
Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 58 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(:34) 10-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to ARI 4, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 11 for 7 yards (4-J.Carter; 16-B.Zylstra).