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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 65

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 14-A.Lee punts 46 yards to CAR 19, Center-43-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.65 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model