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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 17 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.15 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -2.13 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.98 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model