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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to CAR 25, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 35 for 10 yards (31-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model