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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 31

Carolina Panthers 20 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(:04) 5-Z.Gonzalez 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.59 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model