Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 23 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 10-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to ARI 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 36 for 1 yard (45-G.Ricci). PENALTY on ARI-33-A.Hamilton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.50 EP
70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model