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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 42

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Carolina Panthers 31

What Actually Happened

(3:24) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler sacked at CAR 49 for -7 yards (sack split by 91-M.Fox and 43-H.Reddick).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.98 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model