Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 67

Carolina Panthers 31 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 10-L.Edwards punts 55 yards to ARI 12, Center-44-J.Jansen. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 29 for 17 yards (38-M.Hartsfield). CAR-38-M.Hartsfield was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model