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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 3

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 31-Da.Williams right tackle to LV 1 for 2 yards (35-B.Facyson; 52-D.Perryman).

The Three Options

GO +3.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 3, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model