4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
KC Away

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Rich Bisaccia
Sunday 2021-11-14 · 20:20 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 53.5

Win Probability

KC
48.8%
LV
51.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • KC defense: +0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV defense: +0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.144 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.158 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

KC 24
–
LV 26
Projected margin: LV by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

KC

Lucas Niang T Out Ribs
Mike Remmers T Out Knee
L'Jarius Sneed CB Questionable Ankle

LV

Tyree Gillespie S Out Hamstring
Nick Kwiatkoski LB Out Ankle
Keisean Nixon CB Doubtful Ankle
Amik Robertson CB Doubtful Hip

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 41
–
LV 14

Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:56 TD KC (2:56) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – LV 0
  • Q2 13:03 TD LV (13:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – LV 6
  • Q2 08:29 FG KC (8:29) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 10 – LV 7
  • Q2 01:45 TD KC (1:45) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – LV 7
  • Q3 12:16 TD LV (12:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 89-B.Edwards for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 17 – LV 13
  • Q3 07:14 TD KC (7:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – LV 14
  • Q3 01:02 FG KC (1:02) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 27 – LV 14
  • Q4 13:23 TD KC (13:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 31-Da.Williams for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 33 – LV 14
  • Q4 07:45 TD KC (7:45) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 13-B.Pringle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 40 – LV 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:39) 5-T.Townsend punts 42 yards to LV 30, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 32%

    (8:43) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to KC 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (:45) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to KC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg. 21-M.Hughes to KC 46 for 37 yards (6-A.Cole). FUMBLES (6-A.Cole), RECOVERED by LV-87-F.Moreau at 50. LV-45-A.Ingold was injured during the play.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (8:29) 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 16 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:11) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to KC 27, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-5-D.Deablo. PENALTY on LV-16-D.Stoner, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at KC 27.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) 31-Da.Williams right tackle to LV 1 for 2 yards (35-B.Facyson; 52-D.Perryman).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (1:02) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 29, Center-47-T.Sieg. 21-M.Hughes ran ob at KC 38 for 9 yards (5-D.Deablo).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (7:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (1:02) 7-H.Butker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 27%

    (14:53) (Punt formation) 5-T.Townsend pass short left to 85-M.Kemp to LV 37 for 16 yards (35-B.Facyson).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:57) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller to LV 47 for 2 yards (26-C.Lammons; 23-A.Watts).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 20 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (1:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 13-H.Renfrow (21-M.Hughes).